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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

However the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising collectively. In an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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