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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.