Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
